4 Jul · 16:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DB
🇨🇿David Barton
ELO 1475
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Barton
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stefek
ELO 1440
FormWWLWL
52%
48%
🌟Stefek goes over total as underdog 69% (13)
Fair odds · Barton
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 76% · 1.32· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H5-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.