4 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
V2
🇨🇿Vaclav Nohejl 2005
ELO 1634
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.962005
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sychra
ELO 1617
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · 2005
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H13-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.