5 Jul · 02:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DH
🇨🇿David Horak
ELO 1495
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Smrcek
MS
🇨🇿Milan Smrcek
ELO 1510
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Smrcek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.