5 Jul · 03:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Milan Smrcek
ELO 1510
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Smrcek
AM
🇨🇿Alexander Mikuska
ELO 1496
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Smrcek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H1-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.