5 Jul · 03:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1964
ELO 1414
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kosar
VK
🇨🇿Vaclav Kosar
ELO 1472
FormLLWWW
47%
53%
🌟1964 stays under total as underdog 69% (13)
Fair odds · Kosar
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+58
H2H18-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.