5 Jul · 04:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FB
🇨🇿Frantisek Briza
ELO 1491
FormWWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Horak
DH
🇨🇿David Horak
ELO 1495
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Horak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 36% · 2.81· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H38-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.