5 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AB
🇨🇿Ales Barton
ELO 1608
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Barton
MH
🇨🇿Martin Huk
ELO 1573
FormWLLLW
52%
48%
🌟Huk covers set handicap as underdog 83% (12)
Fair odds · Barton
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H29-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.