5 Jul · 17:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Michal Syroha
ELO 1443
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Trojan
FT
🇨🇿Frantisek Trojan
ELO 1470
FormLWLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Trojan
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H23-43
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.