5 Jul · 16:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MC
🇨🇿Michal Chalupa
ELO 1538
FormWLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Chalupa
MH
🇨🇿Marek Holub
ELO 1444
FormLLLLL
55%
45%
🌟Holub covers set handicap as underdog 71% (14)
Fair odds · Chalupa
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+94
H2H33-26
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+94)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (33-26)