5 Jul · 21:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pavelka
ELO 1553
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kysely
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kysely
ELO 1594
FormWWWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Kysely
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 75% · 1.34· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.