5 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JB
🇨🇿Jan Bernat
ELO 1445
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Malek
LM
🇨🇿Lukas Malek
ELO 1463
FormWWLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Malek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.