5 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇨🇿Jaroslav Prokupek
ELO 1470
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zmuda
PZ
🇨🇿Petr Zmuda
ELO 1510
FormWLWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Zmuda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.