5 Jul · 14:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TD
🇨🇿Tomas Dousek
ELO 1672
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dousek
RP
🇨🇿Radovan Polasek
ELO 1641
FormWLWWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Dousek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H5-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.