5 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KD
🇨🇿Kyryl Darin
ELO 1449
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Andrle
TA
🇨🇿Tomas Andrle
ELO 1467
FormLWLLW
49%
51%
🌟Darin stays under total as underdog 80% (20)
Fair odds · Andrle
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H30-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.