5 Jul · 17:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cabis
ELO 1629
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dousek
TD
🇨🇿Tomas Dousek
ELO 1672
FormLWWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Dousek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.