5 Jul · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿David Horak
ELO 1495
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Horak
KD
🇨🇿Kyryl Darin
ELO 1449
FormWLLWW
52%
48%
🌟Darin stays under total as underdog 80% (20)
Fair odds · Horak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H19-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.