5 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇨🇿Martin Polivka
ELO 1499
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Chalupa
MC
🇨🇿Michal Chalupa
ELO 1538
FormWLWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Chalupa
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.