5 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PZ
🇨🇿Petr Zmuda
ELO 1510
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kysely
SK
🇨🇿Stepan Kysely
ELO 1563
FormLLLLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Kysely
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H0-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.