5 Jul · 18:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MH
🇨🇿Marek Holub
ELO 1444
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Polivka
MP
🇨🇿Martin Polivka
ELO 1499
FormWLLLL
47%
53%
🌟Holub covers set handicap as underdog 71% (14)
Fair odds · Polivka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+55
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.