5 Jul · 16:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ZP
🇨🇿Zbynek Pagac
ELO 1534
FormWWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Pagac
MP
🇨🇿Martin Polivka
ELO 1499
FormWLLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Pagac
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H6-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.