5 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Paril
ELO 1646
FormLLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Paril
PW
🇨🇿Pavel Wawrosz
ELO 1610
FormLLLLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Paril
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H13-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.