5 Jul · 12:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TD
🇨🇿Tomas Dousek
ELO 1672
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Dousek
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Paril
ELO 1646
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Dousek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H13-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.