6 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MT
🇨🇿Mihail Trinta
ELO 1411
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Trinta
MR
🇨🇿Milan Regner
ELO 1397
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Trinta
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H9-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.