6 Jul · 18:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AB
🇨🇿Ales Barton
ELO 1597
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Simecek
JS
🇨🇿Jan Simecek
ELO 1619
FormLLWWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Simecek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.