6 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FB
🇨🇿Frantisek Briza
ELO 1508
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Briza
DH
🇨🇿David Horak
ELO 1481
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Briza
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H26-38
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.