6 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kanera
ELO 1635
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kanera
JS
🇨🇿Jan Simecek
ELO 1619
FormLLWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Kanera
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.