7 Jul · 04:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1964
ELO 1409
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Pelikan
JP
🇨🇿Josef Pelikan
ELO 1439
FormLWLLW
48%
52%
🌟1964 stays under total as underdog 69% (13)
Fair odds · Pelikan
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H6-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.