6 Jul · 17:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AB
🇨🇿Ales Barton
ELO 1597
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zahradka
MZ
🇨🇿Michal Zahradka
ELO 1611
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Zahradka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H4-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.