7 Jul · 02:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Marek Chlebecek
ELO 1540
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Hlawatschke
AH
🇨🇿Ales Hlawatschke
ELO 1554
FormWLWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Hlawatschke
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.