7 Jul · 03:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JT
🇨🇿Jan Trefny
ELO 1500
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Chlebecek
MC
🇨🇿Marek Chlebecek
ELO 1540
FormLWWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Chlebecek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.