6 Jul · 16:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MZ
🇨🇿Michal Zahradka
ELO 1611
FormLLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Simecek
JS
🇨🇿Jan Simecek
ELO 1619
FormLLWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Simecek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H6-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.