7 Jul · 00:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JT
🇨🇿Jan Trefny
ELO 1500
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Hlawatschke
AH
🇨🇿Ales Hlawatschke
ELO 1554
FormWLWWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Hlawatschke
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.