6 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LM
🇨🇿Ludek Madle
ELO 1382
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Syroha
MS
🇨🇿Michal Syroha
ELO 1419
FormLLLLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Syroha
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H14-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.