7 Jul · 04:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Marek Chlebecek
ELO 1540
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kysely
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kysely
ELO 1588
FormWLWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Kysely
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.