6 Jul · 22:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TK
🇨🇿Tibor Kolenic
ELO 1467
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Briza
FB
🇨🇿Frantisek Briza
ELO 1508
FormWWLLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Briza
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H34-41
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.