6 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jan Simecek
ELO 1619
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Simecek
MH
🇨🇿Martin Huk
ELO 1571
FormLWWLW
53%
47%
🌟Huk covers set handicap as underdog 83% (12)
Fair odds · Simecek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 31% · 3.20· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H2-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.