7 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MZ
🇨🇿Michal Zahradka
ELO 1625
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zahradka
JR
🇨🇿Jiri Ruzicka
ELO 1579
FormLWWLL
52%
48%
🌟Ruzicka rarely covers set handicap as underdog 36% (14)
Fair odds · Zahradka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H33-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.