7 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pavelka
ELO 1533
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pavelka
JS
🇨🇿Jakub Simecek
ELO 1514
FormLWWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Pavelka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.