7 Jul · 18:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MB
🇨🇿Martin Biolek
ELO 1679
FormLLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Dzida
JD
🇨🇿Jan Dzida
ELO 1686
FormLLWLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Dzida
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H50-39
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.