7 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Varcl Jnr
ELO 1505
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Steffan
JS
🇨🇿Jan Steffan
ELO 1523
FormLLLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Steffan
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H14-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.