7 Jul · 13:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇨🇿Dmitro Parhomenko
ELO 1444
FormLWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Zmuda
PZ
🇨🇿Petr Zmuda
ELO 1531
FormWLWWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Zmuda
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+87
H2H8-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+87)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-2)