7 Jul · 18:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PG
🇨🇿Pavel Gireth
ELO 1744
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gireth
PB
🇨🇿Petr Bradach
ELO 1711
FormWLWLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Gireth
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.