7 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JD
🇨🇿Jan Dzida
ELO 1686
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dzida
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cabis
ELO 1631
FormLLWLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Dzida
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+55
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.