7 Jul · 21:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jan Steffan
ELO 1523
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Bartunek
RB
🇨🇿Radek Bartunek
ELO 1564
FormLWWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Bartunek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H27-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.