7 Jul · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DM
🇨🇿David Mikula
ELO 1432
FormLLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Guliak
RG
🇨🇿Roman Guliak
ELO 1470
FormWLWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Guliak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H9-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.