7 Jul · 18:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cabis
ELO 1631
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dousek
TD
🇨🇿Tomas Dousek
ELO 1681
FormWLLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Dousek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H5-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.