7 Jul · 18:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PW
🇨🇿Pavel Wawrosz
ELO 1611
FormWLLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Wawrosz
JP
🇨🇿Jakub Plachta
ELO 1605
FormLWLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Wawrosz
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.