7 Jul · 21:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KD
🇨🇿Kyryl Darin
ELO 1454
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dousa
TD
🇨🇿Tomas Dousa
ELO 1507
FormLWWLL
47%
53%
🌟Darin stays under total as underdog 80% (20)
Fair odds · Dousa
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.