8 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PP
🇨🇿Pavel Petr
ELO 1415
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Petr
PP
🇨🇿Pavel Potmesil
ELO 1384
FormLLLWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Petr
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.