8 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DU
🇨🇿Daniel Unzeitig
ELO 1466
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Pagac
ZP
🇨🇿Zbynek Pagac
ELO 1546
FormLWWLL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Pagac
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+80
H2H23-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.